I like to use duration between irrigations as a guide. This is really no different thanpotting up a from-seed plant. When it's drinking fairly fast, you know the roots have colonized the current pot and ready for a larger size. The roots should be developed enough to hold the medium together with a little moisture.
when you pot up, you want to go up in steps so that it doesn't sit for a long period of time sopping wet with minimal drinking. If it's taking more than 5-7 days after a pot up, you may want an intermediate size. Stagnant water soaked into a medium without roots is not much different that stagnant water sitting in a bucket. 5-7 days probably wouldn't cause a problem, but i wouldn't push too far beyond that.