trichomes, pistils and density of nugs.. i try to use more than 1 metric to keep my timing consistent as each these can vary a bit per plant at times.
even the hay smell may be more about genetics or maybe related to too much of a particular nute? I had to take some plants early last winter. the blueberry muffins never smelled like hay even early on in drying process. smelled like blueberries.
thc potency should be nearly as high as a week or two later... this stuff doesn't change over night. the more days invovled, the greater the difference can be. cloudy is actually first sign of decay. amber is advanced decay of thc-a. there are more than 1 active ingredient impacting our buzz though... and it's not thoroughly researched. Last i checked nobody's lungs or tongu could discern between the various psychoactive molecules invovled, so i'd be hesitant to trust word-of-mouth beyond anything that is vague and admittedly uncertain. trial and error is best.
even if all that we assume is correct, chemicals can impact individuals differently.. think of someone that passes out within 15minutes of taking Nyquil vs someone that gets hyper (same with alcohol too.. some get tired some get energized despite alcohol being a depressant while thc et al is a stimulant and has varying effects too.)